2024 was a year with little progress made on key elements of a just transition in Scotland
While we are waiting with great interest for the UK Government’s Great British Energy company to start operation from its HQ in Aberdeen, and with a flurry of consultations from the UK Government, we can reflect on another year of ‘business as usual’ in Scotland. Very little positive progress towards creating the Just Transition which Scotland needs can be reported.
The Scottish Government appears to have lost momentum, with the Energy Strategy and the three sectoral Just Transition Plans still unpublished. There has not been a further round for applications for the Just Transition Fund in the North East and the Offshore Skills Passport remains in development.
A document entitled ‘Green Industrial Strategy’ has been published, but we don’t think that it merits that title. In fact, we think that its emphasis on inward financial investment and the market-based embodied in it are part of the problem, not the solutions, for Scotland’s industrial communities. However there was no consultation process through which that view could be submitted to the Scottish Government.
Grangemouth refinery
The closure of the refinery at Grangemouth is still scheduled for 2025. Last month, a Grangemouth Just Transition Plan appeared (the consultation deadline is 6 February). It points in optimistic directions but does not contain any credible pathway for the refinery’s workers to travel along them. The prospects of a transition here appear to lie within Project Willow, for which the Scottish and UK governments have given PetroIneos £1.5 million, though we don’t know on what terms. However, unless action is taken to preserve employment for the current workers, such prospects, which will not materialise for some years, will be of little relevance to this skilled workforce.
Just Transition Commission alert to the risk of going backwards
This overall impression that progress has stalled appears to be confirmed by the Just Transition Commission which says on the webpage linking to its latest report that “The Commission’s conclusion in its progress assessment is that Scotland is now at risk of going backwards on just transition“.
In the report Conditions for Success it says this: “A gap remains between the abstract aspiration for just transition frequently referred to at the centre and the lived realities of people around the country” and cites “a pattern of delays to core elements of our climate process as a whole, lack of effective leadership on this agenda, the continued lack of adequate capacity and ongoing challenges in effectively mainstreaming just transition as a top priority across government”.
Some positive expectations for 2025
All the same, there are a few bright spots on the horizon for 2025. Factories which will make subsea cables are being developed by Sumitomo in Nigg and XLCC in Hunterston. It appears likely that Vestas will proceed with building a turbine blade factory in Leith.
One process which may result in real investment in infrastructure and production is the Strategic Investment Model used by the Scottish Government to guide expenditure of its £500 million Offshore Wind Investment Programme. This aims to identify the key investments which are necessary to ensure supply chain jobs, including the aspirations in the Supply Chain Development Commitment statements of ScotWind developers of offshore wind. Significant investment in port infrastructure is expected.
While these few bright spots present opportunities, alone they will not provide for the Just Transition that we are collectively pushing for. In 2025 the Just Transition Partnership will continue to coordinate the shared trade union and environmental demands for a more equitable future, with greens jobs and fair climate action across communities in Scotland.